If it feels like the market is stuck — you’re not wrong. Despite rising inventory levels, existing home sales are still hovering around 4 million annually. Homes are sitting longer, price growth is cooling, and buyers are finally starting to get some negotiating power back. So what’s really going on?

Let’s break it down ⬇

📊 Existing Home Sales Are Sluggish — But Shifting

In June, existing home sales dropped 2.7% month-over-month and held flat year-over-year, landing at a 3.93 million annualized pace. That’s comparable to what we saw in 2008 — and far from the 5–5.5 million range we’d expect in a balanced market.

📈 Median home price? $435,300 — up 2.7% MoM and 2.0% YoY.
📦 Total inventory? Holding at 1.53 million homes.
🕒 Months of supply? Now at 4.7 — the highest it’s been in a while.

What does that mean? Homes are lingering longer. Buyers are being more selective. And sellers? They’re adjusting expectations.

🏦 No Fed Rate Cut… Yet

The Federal Reserve meets July 30, and the market is almost certain the Fed will not cut interest rates this month. We’ve been on pause all of 2025, and that’s likely to continue.

Why? Two big reasons:

1. Inflation isn’t dropping. Core PCE — the Fed’s preferred inflation measure — is still at 2.7%, well above the 2.0% target.
2. The job market is still strong. Unemployment is at 4.1%, which isn’t high enough to trigger rate cuts.

The Fed is being cautious — and until inflation moves meaningfully lower, we shouldn’t expect relief on mortgage rates just yet.

📉 Buyer Competition Is Cooling

If your clients are asking, “Is now a good time to buy?” — they’re probably sensing a shift.

• Only 21% of homes sold in June went for above asking price (compared to 29% in June 2024).
• The average number of offers per home? Just 2.4 in June — down from 2.9 a year ago.

💡 Translation: Less bidding war pressure, more room to negotiate, and listings sitting longer (median days on market is up to 27 from 22 last June).

📣 NAR’s Outlook: Flat in 2025, Jump in 2026

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) has revised its forecast:

• 2025: Just 3% growth in home sales and 1% price growth
• 2026: A rebound — 14% sales growth, 4% price increase — if rates drop closer to 6%

They’re expecting a late-year or early 2026 recovery. Until then, it’s all about strategy, patience, and smart pricing.

🧠 What Realtors Are Seeing Right Now

Every month, NAR surveys agents for their Realtors Confidence Index, and here’s what they’re saying:

• Only 17% expect buyer activity to increase over the next 3 months
• 23% expect seller activity to increase — a sign that supply might continue to outpace demand
• All-cash deals are up to 29% of sales — nearly 1 in 3 homes were bought without a mortgage!

First-time buyers are still holding steady at 30% of the market, but they’re up against higher prices, limited options, and fierce investor competition.

🔮 What to Watch Next

• 🏦 Fed Meeting on July 30 — while no cut is expected, any shift in language could signal future changes
• 📉 September & October — slight chances of rate cuts on the horizon, but it all depends on inflation and labor data
• 📊 Inventory Trends — more homes on the market means better opportunities for buyers and a more level playing field.

👀 Final Takeaway

This market is not frozen — it’s evolving.

Buyers are gaining leverage. Listings are lasting longer. And while rates remain stubbornly high, there’s a window of opportunity for those who know how to play the long game.

If you’re a seller, pricing and preparation are key.
If you’re a buyer, patience + strategy = power.
And if you’re an agent? Staying informed and staying visible is everything.

Need support with your marketing strategy? — We’ve got you covered. 🐝

Go to www.therealtorhive.com → The Realtor Hive App to get started.

Your Busy Bee, Jenny Aldrete